FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Jan. 31, 2006
BLOOMINGTON,
Ind. -- Scientists at the Indiana University School of Informatics have
built a model to help better predict the outbreak of pandemic
influenzas and other diseases which spread along the world's commercial
airline routes.
The researchers' analysis shows that
large-scale mathematical models that take fully into account the
complexity of the air transportation network can be used to obtain a
detailed forecast of emerging disease outbreaks. Their study, which
appears in the Jan. 30 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science,
also demonstrates it is possible to assess the predictability of
epidemic patterns, thereby providing a tool that might be used to help
scientists better forecast outbreaks and to analyze and develop
containment measures.
"From our study, it becomes apparent that the
air-transportation-network properties are responsible for the global
pattern of diseases," says Alessandro Vespignani, professor of
informatics. "In this view, the complex features of the network are the
origin of the unrelated and seemingly erratic spreading of diseases
such as severe acute respiratory syndrome."
"While SARS has been largely contained," adds
Vittoria Colizza, a member of the research team, "it offers a paramount
example of how far and how fast future epidemics could spread,
particularly pandemic influenzas."
The team used the massive passenger-flow
databases of International Air Transport Association, an organization
of 265 airlines which comprises 99 percent of all international air
traffic. Census information derived from 3,100 urban areas in 220
countries and related disease patterns from those areas also was
collected.
Using advanced computational capabilities,
the researchers were able to run more than 10,000 mathematical modeling
equations simultaneously to obtain predictions and confidence
intervals.
Joining Vespignani and Colizza as co-authors
are Marc Barthélemy, visiting faculty scholar; and Alain Barrat, a
researcher with Université Paris-Sud, Orsay, France. Their study was
partially funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation.
"The tools developed by this modeling
naturally offer a wealth of information useful in risk assessment and
the evaluation of disease-containment policies," says Vespignani, who
is internationally known for his research in the statistical analysis
and computer modeling of epidemics and how they spread.
The School of Informatics researchers say they
are also beginning to evaluate databases of highway and rail traffic
and their interrelations with air transport to further develop
forecasting models for disease.
About the Indiana University School of Informatics
The
Indiana University School of Informatics offers a unique,
interdisciplinary curriculum that focuses on developing specialized
skills and knowledge of information technology. The School has a
variety of undergraduate degrees and specialized master's and doctorate
degrees in bioinformatics, chemical informatics, health informatics,
human-computer interaction, laboratory informatics, new media and
computer science. Each degree is an interdisciplinary endeavor that
combines course work and field experiences from a traditional subject
area or discipline with intensive study of information and technology.
For more information, visit the School's Web sites:
http://www.informatics.indiana.edu
http://www.informatics.iupui.edu
http://www.informatics.iusb.edu
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