Michele Mancarellapersonal page

Research

My research connects gravitational-wave observations, large-scale-structure surveys, bayesian inference, and tests of gravity, with a strong involvement in current and next-generation experiments.

01 · Main research theme

Gravitational-wave cosmology

Coalescing binaries at cosmological distances are powerful probes of the Universe’s expansion history. The gravitational-wave signal provides a direct measurement of luminosity distance, making compact-binary mergers “standard sirens”. I study how these observations can be used, on their own and together with galaxy surveys, to infer cosmological parameters and test gravity.

Gravitational-wave illustration

Questions I work on

  • What is the value of the Hubble constant? Standard sirens provide an independent measurement of the distance–redshift relation and of \(H_0\).
  • Do gravitational waves propagate as predicted by General Relativity? I study cosmological tests of gravitational-wave propagation to determine if these are compatible with the cosmological standard model.
  • How do cosmology and astrophysics intersect in GW observations? Compact-binary populations and cosmological inference are coupled, both physically and statistically.

Selected work

  • Bright sirensSystematics and accurate cosmological inference with electromagnetic counterparts: Mancarella et al., Phys.Rev.Lett. 133 (2024) 26, 261001, arXiv:2405.02286.
  • Dark sirensCosmology with gravitational-wave and galaxy catalogues: Borghi et al., Astrophys.J. 964 (2024) 2, 191, arXiv:2312.05302.
  • Modified GW propagationTests of gravity at cosmological scales using both compact-binary populations and galaxy-catalogue dark sirens: Mancarella et al., Phys.Rev.D 105 (2022) 6, 064030, arXiv:2112.05728; Finke et al., JCAP 08 (2021) 026, arXiv:2101.12660.

Collaboration work

02 · Methods & astrophysics

Inference & compact-binary populations

My work also focuses on the statistical machinery needed to extract cosmological and astrophysical information from gravitational-wave data. This includes hierarchical Bayesian inference, population modelling, high-dimensional probabilistic methods, and the use of machine-learning techniques where they provide a practical advantage.

Illustration of inference and compact-binary population modelling

Current directions

  • Joint inference of cosmological and compact-binary population shape with data-driven approaches.
  • High-dimensional Bayesian methods for dark sirens and population studies.
  • Scalable computational methods, including probabilistic programming and machine learning.

Selected work

  • High-dimensional population inferenceJoint compact-binary population and cosmological inference in the high-dimensional space of source-level and event-level parameters: Mancarella and Gerosa, Phys.Rev.D 111 (2025) 10, 103012, arXiv:2502.12156.
  • Hierarchical population inference with probabilistic programmingScalable implementations in jax/numpyro and pymc: Agapito et al., Phys.Rev.D 114 (2026) 6, 6, arXiv:2605.20112

03 · Future detectors

Next-generation gravitational-wave observatories

I contribute to the scientific preparation of future gravitational-wave observatories, with a particular focus on the Einstein Telescope: science forecasts, and the connection between experimental design and scientific return.

Einstein Telescope illustration

Einstein Telescope

  • I am one of the coordinators of Detector Configurations and Common Tools (Division 9) of the ET Observational Science Board.
  • I contribute to major ET science, design and configuration studies, connecting detector and network choices to scientific return.
  • I develop forecasting and inference tools for current and third-generation detector networks.

Lunar Gravitational-Wave Antenna

Lunar Gravitational-Wave Antenna concept

I have also contributed to the science case for the Lunar Gravitational-Wave Antenna, which would use the Moon as a planetary-scale detector in the decihertz band. arXiv:2404.09181.

Selected work

  • Detector-network forecastsDetection and parameter-estimation capabilities of Einstein Telescope and third-generation detector networks: Iacovelli et al., Astrophys.J. 941 (2022) 2, 208, arXiv:2207.02771.
  • Population forecastsForecasts of population-level measurements with future gravitational-wave observatoriesDe Renzis et al., Phys.Rev.D 111 (2025) 4, 044048, arXiv:2410.17325.
  • GWFAST methodsFisher-information forecasting framework for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: Iacovelli et al., Astrophys.J.Supp. 263 (2022) 1, 2, arXiv:2207.06910.
  • Specific science casesShort-authored studies on cosmology, multimessenger astronomy, primordial black holes, stochastic backgrounds, and nuclear physics.

Collaboration work

  • ET Observational Science BoardCoordinator of Detector Configurations and Common Tools (Division 9).
  • The Science of the Einstein TelescopeContribution to the ET science “Blue Book”, including cosmology, software tools and synergies with other observatories. arXiv:2503.12263.
  • Detector-design studiesCollaboration studies comparing detector configurations, locations, arm lengths and sensitivities. arXiv:2303.15923.

04 · Foundations & large-scale structure

Dark energy & tests of gravity

The Effective Theory of Dark Energy provides a general framework for describing linear cosmological perturbations in scalar-tensor theories and for connecting fundamental modifications of gravity to observations of large-scale structure and the cosmic microwave background. This was the subject of my PhD work and remains closely connected to my present interest in cosmological tests of gravity.

Large-scale structure illustration

Selected directions

  • Effective-field-theory descriptions of dark energy and modified gravity.
  • Scalar-tensor and DHOST theories and their cosmological signatures.
  • Equivalence-principle tests and relativistic effects in galaxy clustering.
  • Connections between large-scale-structure tests of gravity and gravitational-wave propagation.

Selected work

  • Effective Theory of Dark EnergyFoundational work from my PhD on cosmological perturbations, matter couplings and observational tests. arXiv:1504.05481; arXiv:1509.02191.
  • DHOST cosmologyGeneral higher-order scalar-tensor theories and their cosmological phenomenology. arXiv:1703.03797.
  • Equivalence principle with galaxy clusteringRelativistic dipole observables as probes of deviations from General Relativity. arXiv:2311.14425.